Battleground States: My Predictions vs. Polls
Saturday I posted this prediction on Palin’s effect on the polls in nine battleground polls. A Rasmussen poll released tonight concentrates on five of those states, so let’s see how my predictions are tracking. As of Saturday, all of these states were too close to call with neither candidate holding a meaningful advantage:
| State | My Prediction | Rasmussen | Grade | |
| McCain | Obama | |||
| Colorado | Fast McCain Lead | 46 | 49 | F |
| Florida | Fast McCain Lead | 48 | 48 | B |
| Ohio | Slow Move to McCain | 51 | 44 | B |
| Pennsylvania | Slow Move to McCain | 45 | 47 | A |
| Virginia | Fast McCain Lead | 49 | 47 | A |
| Average | 47.8 | 47 | B- | |
Analysis
Colorado: I expected the outdoors types (Rough Riders) to flock to Palin, but apparently Colorado is still under the spell of the DNC convention. Let’s give this a we
Florida: McCain’s numbers rose in Florida but not quickly enough. Scott Rasmussen said this could have been the result of Hurricane Ike preparations.
Ohio: I predicted a slow shift to McCain (lead around 10/2), but people flocked to McCain. Women drove the move.
Pennsylvania: Trending slowly toward McCain. He’ll have the lead shortly after the VP debate.
Virginia: The Palin effect drove McCain ahead of Obama, which was my prediction. McCain needs to concentrate on this state, though, because he should be ahead by 7 or 8 here.
I’ll continue to update my predictions as more battleground state poll come in.
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