Last year about this time, Business Insider asked 13 Wall Street analysts where the S&P 500 would stand at close of trading today.
For background, the S&P 500 began the year at 2058.9. The mean guess for closing number was 2212 with a standard deviation of 83.
Here’s the ugly chart:
Three of the guesses–Oppenheimer, RBC, and Fundstrat–were more than 3 standard deviations from the actual close of 2050.
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, the most overzealous guesser, expected capex to drive the S&P 500 t0 a whopping 2325. But we know how that turned out.
Where will S&P 500 close to end 2016?
I’ll guess 1241.