Category Archives: 2012 Election

This Is The Infographic That The Whole Republican Party Is Freaking Out About

The 3 million McCain voters who didn’t vote for Romney?

They’re dead.

Voters Die

[Click image to view full size. Please forward, download, and print. This is important.]

To survive, the GOP needs to stop being afraid of Millennials and tell them truth: they can move out of mom and dad’s house, they can drop out of school, they can quit their dead-end job with the idiot supervisor. But they can’t get away from government and debt.

If you want freedom, it doesn’t emanate from Washington, DC.   It starts here.

The Republicans also have to stop pandering. It’s weak and annoying and convinces no one.

It’s time to bring professional, scientific marketing and messaging to work for our country. And that means a lot of money shifts from the traditional consultants to people who actually know what they’re doing.

ACTION

Please forward this infographic to your friends. Share it. Download, print, and hand out. This is important.

Karl Rove’s Air Power Strategy Failed America And His Donors

We heard it repeatedly during the Iraq wars: air power alone cannot win. You must take and hold ground in war.

plane-crash

The same is true in political combat. For years the GOP upset Democrats at all levels through superior ground games. Typically, this process involves:

  • Identifying potential voters
  • Contacting the high-value targets
  • Registering the unregistered
  • Mobilizing them on election day

Karl Rove’s Crossroads PACs tried a different strategy this time. Rove decided to wage a decisive air campaign, using his $300 million war chest to buy airtime in key markets at the last minute. Apparently, team Romney followed suit.

The strategy failed miserably.

Rove’s 2010 Reference Point Was Flawed

Rove’s fundraising ability for 2012 relied on a flawed understanding of what happened in 2010.

During the Tea Party revolution of 2010, Rove targeted key markets with television ads late in the race. The vast majority of the races Rove targeted were winners for the Republicans. It was that fact that led some donors to trust Rove with as much as $30 million each for 2012.

Apparently, not even Rove grasped the difference in the two elections. In 2010, Rove focused on House and Senate races where Republicans were already ahead. In 2010, groups like American Majority Action and Freedomworks put unprecedented numbers of boots on the ground in these districts long before Rove every showed up.

The traditional pollsters missed 2010 because they underestimated conservative enthusiasm and over estimated Democrat enthusiasm. So when Rove’s bets paid off, it looked like he was a genius.

He was: in betting, not in strategy.

But no one bothered to ask if Rove’s 2010 ads made a real difference.

Jump ahead to 2012. Voter enthusiasm was down across the board. The money for ground warfare was diverted to Rove’s air campaign. And, unlike 2010, the full force of the DNC powered Obama’s re-election bid.

While Rove and Romney identified television markets, Obama identified and mobilized new voters. While our phone banks focused on the people on the voter rolls, Obama’s team grew the voter rolls. One observer said that Obama mobilized voters that Romney didn’t know existed.

We Can Fix It

We will win in 2014 and 2016 if we understand the failures of 2012. We need to shift spending from television and Super PACs to technology and people.

First, we need to hire top-shelf marketing strategists, data analysts, marketers, behavioral psychologists, market scientists, database designers, data miners, and web and app developers. That’s where money must go in 2013 and 2014.

Next, we need to invest in systems that support the people above. These systems have to work, they have to work well, and they have to support MODERN marketing strategies, not Y2K-era web sites.

After that, we need funding for the largest GOTV campaign in history. People don’t like phone-banking and door-knocking, and they have plenty of alternatives today. Our campaign offices need to be fun, inviting, entertaining, or people just won’t come out.

Finally, grassroots organizations need to spend far less time in their affinity bubbles talking to themselves nit-picking over minor policy differences. We need to put down our dog-eared copies of  our favorite books occasionally and get involved in spreading ideas in the language and context of 21st century America. And we have start advancing a few big ideas rather than a bunch of little policies.

We Need New Thinking and Funding

A lot of people on Twitter and Facebook are talking about doing what we’ve been doing, only harder. That won’t work. Grassroots conservatives burned themselves out in 2009 and 2010 working hard. And in 2012, the fatigue showed.

We need to look beyond politics to see how winning campaigns work. Look at advertising and marketing. Look at Hollywood and the online game worlds. Look to experts in consumer behavior and neuroscience. Stop looking inside the damn knitting circles of like-minded people.

If you want to help, register on this site. I’ll be talking a lot more about the strategy in Missouri.

The Conservative Base Is Dying And Taking Your Freedom With It *CORRECTION*

Consider these numbers:

  • 9.8 million
  • 11.6 million 16.8 million
  • 55%
  • 61%

Between the 2008 and 2012 elections:

Between those years, neither the GOP nor conservative leaning organizations did anything significant to deal with this demographic cliff. We know the cost.

What was Obama’s popular vote margin?  About the same as the difference between deaths and new voters. (1.8 million difference in dead voters vs. new voting age, and 1.07 difference in vote.)

For the next four years, there is only one objective: inform the kids.

On this front, there’s a glimmer of hope. According to a Harvard Institute of Politics survey, the youngest of those 11.6 million new voters, are becoming fiscal conservatives:

In one poll, for instance, he found that 42 percent of 18- and 19-year-olds identified as “conservative,” compared with just over one-third who said they were “liberal.” By comparison, those proportions were nearly flipped for 22- to 24-year-olds: 39 percent said they were “liberal,” and a third called themselves “conservative.” It was much the same for older twentysomethings.

Obama’s disastrous economy has a lot to do with this “schism” between younger and older Millennials. Though 51% of voters blame the nation’s economy on George W. Bush, the 18- and 19-year-olds were 14 or 15 when the economy crashed.  They were less aware of the good times of the 00’s and more aware of Obama’s inability to fix things.

Crush Sensibilities

Knowing these facts–the death of aging conservatives, which will continue, and the matriculation of school-trained Democrat voters–I see no reason to consider the past. It’s time to focus exclusively on the future.

The future I see involves a three-pronged strategy to reform conservative politics:

  • Marketing
  • Psychology
  • Messaging

This is a moral duty. I won’t waste more of my time placating the sensibilities of the establishment. That’s both the GOP establishment and the Tea Party establishment. (Yes, there’s a Tea Party establishment, and it stopped helping the situation in 2010.)

I need your help. 

If you want to help advance liberty and slow tyranny, statism, authoritarianism, whatever, then follow this link and tell me. Tell me you want to help.

**UPDATE**

I’m not the only one talking about the Republican problem of targeting seniors instead of talking to kids. Allahpundit:

 The advantage of relying heavily on senior citizens, as the GOP does, is that they turn out reliably on election day. The disadvantage is, er, that they die, just as 18-year-olds — most of whom are pro-Obama — are coming onto the rolls.

The GOP needs a Cadillac-like makeover, and it needs one now.

*Based on data from US Census Bureau

Here’s My Electoral Map Prediction

Yes, I’m feeling a wave toward Romney.

Bill Hennessy Electoral Map

My gut tells me this year is a lot like 1980.

1980 Was A Dead Heat

The final Gallup poll that year had a dead heat. Time Magazine’s November 3, 1980, called the race a dead heat. So did Newsweek.

The press was hoping John B. Anderson, a former Republican Congressman running for president as an independent, would siphon votes from Reagan. He did siphon votes from Reagan, but not nearly enough. America was fed up with Jimmy Carter.

What appears to be a dead heat to pollsters could, in fact, be a landslide for Romney. And I think that’s the only way Romney wins.

Romney Must Win Big To Win

In a close race, Democrats will cheat, steal, and defraud. They will fight it in the courts, discover ballots in trunks, and sue to let people vote until they get the numbers they need.

For Romney to win, the race must appear hopeless to Democrats before midnight Tuesday.

That’s exactly what I think will happen.

What do you think?

How To Maximize Your Election Influence

Here’s What To Do Today And On Election Day

Tuesday is the most important election of your life, but voting is never enough. You can have a bigger impact by using social proof to increase your influence. I’ll tell you how, and it won’t take you long.


First, though, make sure nothing gets in the way of exercising your duty to vote.

Studies have shown that you are more likely to vote if you answer these questions before Election Day:

  1. Do you see yourself fulfilling your duty to vote? (Answer “Yes.” Write it down.)
  2. What time do you plan to vote? (Write it down.)
  3. Where will you be coming from? (Work, home, etc. Write it down.)
  4. What will you be doing immediately before you go to vote? (A meeting at work? Dropping the kids off at day care? Write it down.)

Have a friend who might not vote? Ask him these four questions, and he’s more likely than not to show up at the polls. But don’t ask these questions of friends if you don’t know they’ll vote right.

Immediately After Voting

Voting empowers you with remarkable influence and credibility. You’ll waste that power, though, if you don’t put it to work. Here’s what you need to do immediately after voting.

For each candidate or issue you support, tweet: “I just voted for [candidate] for [office]. [hashtag] #stltpc #election2012″

Examples:

I just voted for @MittRomney for President. #POTUS #stltpc #election2012

I just voted for @EdMartin4Mo for Attorney General. #MOAG #stltpc #election2012

I just voted No on Prop A. #PropANo #stltpc #election2012

Next, repeat the process on Facebook in a single post, but omit the hashtags. Studies show that twitter-style hashtags turn off Facebook users, making them less likely to Like, share, or comment.

Tell People You Voted

Finally, tell 3 people you voted and for whom. Check this out:

Even when we control for alternative sources of similar behavior, such as having the same income, education, ideology, or level of political interest, the typical subject is about 15 percent more likely to vote if one of his discussion partners votes [emphasis added].

Christakis, Nicholas A.; Fowler, James H. (2009-09-09). Connected: The Surprising Power of Our Social Networks and How They Shape Our Lives (p. 185). Hachette Book Group. Kindle Edition.

You’ve just maximized the power of voting. Your influence will spread to at least 3 degrees of separation reaching hundreds or hundreds of thousands of people, depending on how connected your network is.

Bill Radles Endorses Ed Martin for Attorney General

I Endorse Ed Martin

Dear Friends,

This is an email to encourage you to remember to do all you can to get Ed Martin elected Attorney General of Missouri. I know there are a lot of races and it is easy sometimes to overlook some of the down-ticket offices. But the Attorney General is an extremely important office. He is the chief law enforcement official of the state. He is responsible for seeing to it that our laws are faithfully enforced and our constitutional rights protected. Kris Koster has shown that his principles will vary with the political winds. All he is concerned about is his own political advancement. We do not need that sort of man in such an important position.

Ed Martin is a true conservative. He believes deeply in the limited role of government and understands that the primary role of government is to protect our liberties. Ed is a courageous fighter of corruption. He will stand up for our rights regardless of the political pressures. The Democrats have poured a vast amount of money into this race because they have an agenda they wish to protect. We need to get this state back on track and electing Ed Martin is an important step in that direction.

As an experienced attorney, I can attest to the importance of this office. Ed Martin is the man to, at long last, restore integrity to the Attorney General’s office.

Sincerely,
Bill Randles

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Our mailing address is:
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Kansas City, MO 64119

Your Rights In Missouri Are Unprotected. Vote For Ed Martin For Your Own Security

Please forward this post to everyone in your email address book. Use the buttons below to share on Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, StumbleUpon, Reddit.  Tell your family that their vote for Ed Martin for Attorney General is your best defense against a Washington power machine run amok.

Ed Martin’s opponent doesn’t seem to realize that the job of Missouri’s Attorney General is to represent our state. The AG isn’t just some high-ranking prosecutor. We have many fine prosecutors protecting us in almost every jurisdiction.

Yes, the Attorney General’s office gets involved in state prosecutions.  But the Attorney General also protects Missouri from Washington overreach.

Well, the AG is supposed to protect Missouri’s interest.  We’ve been without protection against federal meddling for years. That’s the key distinction between our current Attorney General and Ed Martin. Chris Koster Super Cop has not lifted a finger to protect you, your family, your business, or your future from Washington politicians. Ed Martin will.

Get protection. Vote for Ed Martin for Attorney General on November 6.  Your liberty depends on it.

Mitt Romney’s Cleaning Up in Early Voting, but It’s Confused the Hell Out of Politico

Gallup released its early voting poll today, and it shows Mitt Romney winning 52% to 45%—right in line with their Likely Voter poll numbers. Here’s the chart.

GallupEarlyVotingResults

Politico Reporter Can’t Read

But Gallup’s section on early voting by party ID completely lost Politico’s Kevin Robillard.

Robillard looked at the chart that shows when voters intend to vote by party and candidate and mistook it for voting results. This poll question shows that those who support Obama as as likely to vote early as are those who support Romney. No surprise. 

Here’s precisely what Gallup says about this section:

However, when one looks at the voting intentions of likely voters according to candidate support, the political impact for the two candidates appears to be roughly equal.

And here’s what Robillard thinks it says:

Neither candidate has a particular edge among early voters nationally compared to those who will cast their ballots on election day
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/83039.html#ixzz2ApGGRw56

Robillard doesn’t understand that there are simply MORE people who intend to vote for Romney than for Obama. 

What’s worse is the entire liberal media establishment is now confused—or lying—about the poll. They’re taking Robillard’s stupidity and running with it.

More Bad News For Obama

John Nolte points out that Obama’s early voting results are down 22 points from 2008.  That’s huge, and explains why Minnesota and Pennsylvania have moved from Safe for Obama to Toss-Up. 

If Romney wins Pennsylvania, we’ll be celebrating early on the November 6.  Call your friends in PA, comment on Pennsylvania blogs and news sites.  Target people who will vote right if they vote.  Forget conversions—just move the friendlies.

When The Three O’Clock Call Came, Barack Obama Froze

The fog of war is lifting from Benghazi, and what lies beneath should shame Obama’s most ardent supporters. Barack Obama choked, and Americans died.

obama_BloodHandsHope-80

When America came under attack, Obama panicked and froze.

When Americans under his direction pleaded for their lives, he was afraid to pull the trigger.

Here’s the emerging picture.

White House Ordered Military and CIA to Stand Down and Let Al Qaeda Kill

Former Navy SEALs Ty Woods and Glen Doherty, so disgusted by the White House’s refusal to help Americans under attack, defied an order to stand down. The heroes died after hours of valiant fighting against overwhelming odds. Woods and Doherty died doing what Barack Obama was politically afraid to order. Ty Woods and Glen Doherty laid down their lives for fellow Americans in violation of cowardly orders from the President of the United States to let Chris Stevens and Sean Smith die.

Two SEALs made the decision to ignore Washington’s cowardly order to “stand down” and let al Qaeda rape and pillage the US Consulate in Benghazi. Ty Woods and Glen Doherty moved in on the attack. Woods’s father’s not surprised:

This news that he disobeyed his orders does not surprise me. My son was an American hero. And he was going–he had the moral strength to do what was right. Even if that would professionally cost him his job. Even if it would potentially cost him his life. He was a hero who was willing to do whatever was necessary to respond to their cries for help.

The White House then leaked the story that Woods died because he disobeyed a direct order. Obama’s reasoning for the leak was that Americans would turn against Woods and Doherty for the infraction. But Obama doesn’t know very much about the American mind.

Americans revere men and women who break the rules to do what’s right. We honor as heroes those who will risk career and life to save others, and to save America’s honor and prestige. The entire American Revolution was a violation of rules. The Boston Tea Party was a major felony.

When leadership fails, we expect new leaders to emerge. Ty Woods and Glen Doherty emerged as heroes because they violated the unconscionable, cowardly orders of an unfit President.

White House Ordered the Illegal Arrest of the anti-Mohammed Filmmaker

Almost immediately after the story broke, the White House invented “Muslim Rage” over a YouTube video to cover the President’s failure. To a degree, it worked. Muslims throughout the Middle East took to the streets to protest in response to Barack Obama’s instigation.

But let’s be clear about this: the Muslim rage was fomented by Barack Obama, not by a video.

And the President had his scapegoat arrested until after the election. According to Front Page Magazine:

The father of Tyrone Woods, the ex-Navy SEAL killed in Benghazi, met with Obama and Clinton. And he reports that Clinton told him that they were going to “arrest and prosecute” the man behind the Mohammed movie.

There would be no reason for Clinton to have that information unless the decision did not come from the level of the Federal prosecutor in California, thousands of miles away, but from the White House and the State Department. That makes this a political prosecution and a direct attack by the government on Freedom of Speech by Obama and Hillary Clinton.

So frightened by his own failure to help dying Americans, Barack Obama took to the last refuge of a dictator, rounding up political prisoners to serve as scapegoats. Mark Basseley Youssef, the filmmaker, is Barack Obama’s Alfred Drefus.

White House and Leon Panetta Lied

Leon Panetta told reporters that the US military lacked the means and intelligence to intervene during the Benghazi attack.

He lied.

We also learned that, in those first moments of the attack, a request for military back-up was made by U.S. staff on the ground but was denied by Washington. It had planes and Special Forces less than 500 miles away in southern Italy – or about the same distance as Washington to Boston. They could have been there in less than two hours. Yet the commander-in-chief declined to give the order.

Barack Obama let Americans die because he wanted to be re-elected.

White House Attempts to Blame Cowardly Orders on CIA. Petreaus Turns on Obama

Yesterday’s White House story was that the CIA ordered Ty Woods and his security crew to stand down and let Chris Stevens die. Obama expected CIA chief, David Petreaus, to be a good German soldier and back-up the lie.

Petreaus refused to accept the White House smear. In a statement, Petreaus refuted Obama, saying, “No one at any level in the CIA told anybody not to help those in need; claims to the contrary are simply inaccurate. ”

Obama will fire Petreaus, of course, and replace him with some incompetent but loyal apparatchik. Undoubtedly, Obama’s Ministry of Propaganda will leak lies about some hideous flaw in Petreaus’s character. That’s what dictators do.

Americans Must Right These Wrongs

The people of the United States must right five wrongs. (Six if you count electing Barack Obama in the first place.)

1.  Obama failed to protect Americans sent into harms way.

2. Obama failed to respond to pleas from Americans under attack when he had the means to do so.

3. Obama jailed a man for his political beliefs.

4. Obama lied to cover up his deadly failures.

5. Obama attempted to smear the true heroes of this affair.

When the President fails, his board of directors fails, too. And we are the President’s board.

It’s our job to right this wrong, and just voting him out of office is not enough. The Romney Administration and the next Congress must expose Obama’s anti-American.

This is now our failure to fix. We failed as free citizens by electing Barack Obama and a compliant Congress in 2008. If we re-elect Obama, we will miss our opportunity for redemption.

Vote for Romney. Vote Republican.

THis Is How I’m Voting On November 6

A lot of people want to know how to vote on the ballot measures and major offices in 2 weeks. Here’s how I’m voting, and why.

sexy voter

Ballot Measures

YES on Amendment 3: Change to Judge Appointments

Better Courts for Missouri helped promote this measure to arrest the leftward list of appointments. The ballot language is awful, but this amendment is a step in the right direction. From their web site:

Amendment 3 is a package of very modest reforms including:
•An additional gubernatorial appointee to the Appellate Judicial Commission, bringing the total to four members of seven. This will allow the people to exercise more accountability through our elected Governor.
•The Commission will be required to nominate four people to each panel presented to the Governor, an increase of one over the current three. This will ensure that panels will be harder to package in a way that would favor one particular nominee.
•Instead of allowing a sitting Supreme Court judge to play an active role in selecting their colleagues, Amendment 3 would require a retired judge to serve in a non-voting, advisory role. Right now, Missouri is one of only seven states which allow a sitting judge to serve in a voting capacity on the judicial selection commission.
•Terms of gubernatorial appointees to the Appellate Judicial Commission will be shortened (to four years) and re-staggered. Under this plan, Governors would get to appoint two commissioners during their first year in office and two more in the third year of their term.

NO on Proposition A: St. Louis Police Board

I’ve already written plenty on this subject. Feel free to read my latest article.

NO on Proposition B: A 760% Cigarette Tax Hike

This proposition puts thousands of Missouri jobs at risk in communities all around our borders – except the border with Illinois. It’s another one of those insane sin taxes intended to both curb a bad habit AND increase revenues. Obviously, it can’t do both. Either it temporarily bloats government, leaving a budget hole when the behavior ends, or it bloats government and the deadly behavior continues.  Just vote no.

YES Proposition E: Stop Jay Nixon From Going Tyrannical With Obamacare

Jay Nixon tried to implement key provisions of Obamacare last year by executive fiat. This Proposition ensures neither he nor any bureaucrat in Missouri every tries that crap again. Here’s more from last week.

State Offices

Governor: Dave Spence.

He will actually govern, as governors should, not vacation for four years the way Jay NIxon has.

Dave Spence knows how business and jobs work—he’s created both. He will get Missourians back to work (with Mitt in the White House).  Vote for Dave Spence for Governor.

Lieutenant Governor: Peter Kinder

Peter Kinder has been done an excellent job as Missouri’s Lieutenant Governor. He fought Obamacare when no other statewide officeholder would. He’s stood for strong conservative principles since his days in the legislature. We need Peter Kinder back in JC.

Attorney General:  Ed Martin Jr.

No matter how much Chris Koster lies, here’s the truth: Ed Martin is an upstanding, intelligent corruption fighter who’s worked for ordinary people his whole adult life.

Ed drove the implementation of Missouri’s fantastic open check register online—a system so transparent that Jay Nixon tried to kill it. Grover Norquist praised the open data as a model for the other 49 states.

Most importantly, with Washington tyranny growing every day, Ed Martin will be our strongest ally in preserving freedoms for our state and its people.  His opponent has done NOTHING to stop Washington’s assault on state sovereignty.  The erosion of freedom ends when Ed Martin takes his oath of office.

If I could only cast a vote in one statewide race, I’d cast it for Ed Martin for Attorney General.

Secretary of State: Shane Schoeller

Leftists, a few year back, mounted a successful strategy of putting hardcore progressives into the office of Secretary of State in states they wanted to flip from Republican to Democrat.  You should read The Blueprint: How the Democrats Won Colorado.

The reason Democrats targeted SoS jobs?  Control of elections.

Shane Schoeller is a solid Conservative Republican who will run the state wisely and fairly. He will ensure fair elections, free from fraud. This is a critical race, and we need to win.  After the Attorney General race, this is the most important statewide office election in 2012. Vote for Shane Schoeller for Secretary of State.

Treasurer: Cole McNary

Cole worked to reform education in Missouri as a State Rep, and he’ll keep Missouri’s fiscal house in order as Treasurer.

Two men impressed me greatly at a meeting in 2010, when the Tea Party was just kicking off its election year strategy: (now) State Senator John Lamping, and Cole McNary.

Both men had the backbone to discuss issues we disagreed on. Both made strong cases for their side without getting personal, pointed, or belittling. Cole hung around for an hour after the meeting ended to continue the conversation.

Will that make him a great Treasurer? Perhaps, or not. But it tells you that Cole McNary is the kind of guy who will look you in the eye and tell you the truth. We need that.

Federal Offices

US Senate: Todd Akin

Todd Akin received the highest Heritage Action Scorecard rating of any member of the Missouri delegation (82%).  He has been an outstanding representative of MIssouri’s 2nd Congressional District since Jim Talent went onto the Senate.

Todd Akin will promote jobs, energy, fiscal responsibility, peace through strength, and life.

If we don’t elect Todd and win the Senate, Obamacare will be fully implemented.

If Todd Akin isn’t not our next Senator, the Supreme Court, and thousands of lower courts, will flip left.

If you have no other reason to vote for Todd Akin, for this: he will stop another Elena Kagan from reaching the Supreme Court.

If you don’t vote for Todd Akin on November 6, you will take it to your grave.

Second Congressional District: Ann Wagner

I’ve gotten to know Ann over the last year, and I will vote for her with enthusiasm. I will also remind her of the values of the district she represents, and I’ll let her know how she’s doing on the Heritage Action Scorecard.

Ann will help the state and the country recover from four years of Obama’s authoritarian rule. She’ll vote to repeal Obamacare, to increase jobs and energy, and to hold the line on regulations and spending. That’s all I need to know to elect her to represent me in Congress, and, if you live in the 2nd district, I hope you will vote for Ann, too.

Please not that these are my views and do not necessarily reflect the positions of St. Louis Tea Party Coalition.