Election Prediction

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For what it’s worth–this is my most optimistic guess:

Beginning with WSJ’s 216-203 Bush, I see the Toss Ups falling like this:

State EV Winner
NV 5 Bush
NM 5 Bush
MN 10 Bush
IA 7 Bush
AR 6 Bush
WI 10 Bush
OH 20 Bush
PA 21 Kerry
NY 4 Kerry
FL 27 Kerry

Bush 216 + 63 = 279 (winner)
Kerry 203 + 52 = 255 (loser)

Popular vote:  Bush 50-Kerry 48-Nader/others <1.

Senate:  GOP + 4

House:  GOP + 4

Likely alternatiaves (in order of probability):

1.  Bush wins Florida
2.  Kerry wins Ohio
3.  Bush wins Pennsylvannia
4.  Kerry wins Minnesota
5.  Kerry wins Wisconsin
6.  Bush wins Michigan
7.  Kerry wins New Mexico
8.  Bush wins Hawaii