landslide9
How to Predict Trump’s Landslide Win
Reading Time: 6 minutes

You might have noticed that my predictions have been remarkably accurate lately, have you not?

For example, on Sunday, May 1, I predicted Ted Cruz would suspend his campaign after getting trounced in Indiana. Two days later, Cruz lost the Indiana primary to Donald Trump 53 to 36. At the time I wrote, many pundits and pollster still believed Cruz could win that Indiana race, and everyone believed Cruz was telling the truth when he said repeatedly he was staying in the race to Cleveland unless Trump reached 1,237 delegates before then. Turns out, those pundits were wrong and I was right. Cruz quit long before Trump won the magic number.

Then on Wednesday morning I predicted Paul Ryan and Donald Trump would end their meeting with a joint statement committing to work together to win in November. Pundits thought Ryan would use the meeting to chastise Trump and drive a permanent wedge between the two men. But the meeting ended with a joint statement that expressed precisely the intention and commitment I forecast.

You might think an ancient Sumerian god speaks to me through my dog Stella. Maybe. But more likely, I’ve been applying my day-job thinking in human behavior and persuasive design to my forecasting in politics. And it seems to work. While I’m not nearly as good at this as Scott Adams, I’m getting better.

I now predict that you would like to know my secrets for predicting outcomes. Great. I’ll tell you. In a moment.

Before that, let me tell you I have no idea if I’m right about any of this. I know just enough psychology to know that people are terrible at understanding their own motivations and errors. For example, psychologists will produce better research papers if they’re offered virtual badges for transparency and completeness. In other words, psychologists respond to incentive tactics that most psychologists consider psychological errors. If psychologists with PhDs fall for meaningless rewards, I’m pretty sure I have some blind spots, too.

Now, my secrets.

Focus on Words, Voice, Face, and Body

First, I try to focus on individuals. I can learn more about famous people like Ted Cruz and Paul Ryan than I can about millions of people whose names I don’t know. Over time, I might be able to accurately predict how many people respond to a given situation. An election, for example. But for now, I’m focusing on these people with a large body of public information. I pay to attention to the words they use, their tone, tempo, and volume of voice, their facial expressions, and their body language. These four behaviors–language, voice, face, and body–told me Ted Cruz was a beaten man the Friday before the Indiana primary. Maybe he told no one, but Cruz’s brain had already decided his race would end the following Tuesday. No matter how hard he tried, he could not hide what his brain had decided as he spoke to supporters in Jeffersonville, Indiana. The key is to watch people without judging or expecting anything.

Compare to a Baseline

In predicting the Cruz announcement, I had a baseline to compare against. That baseline was Cruz’s speech to supporters in Iowa just before the Iowa caucuses. When you watch the two speeches side-by-side, it’s impossible to miss the changes in Cruz’s words, voice, face, and body. One of the strongest tells was words. In Iowa, Cruz talked about the future, but in Indiana, Cruz talked almost completely in past tense, saying things like “we ran.” The difference in tense was probably totally subconscious, but it was distinct.

An example of subconscious language tells of future behavior happens when employees are ready to quit their jobs. Employees who’ve had enough start referring to the company they work for as “it,” “they,” or “them.” Happy employees say “we” and “us.” Again, it helps to have a baseline. Some people never refer to the company they work for as “us.” But most do–until they’re ready to quit.

Consider Their End Games and Interests

Everything in life is a form of negotiation, and most people open negotiations by stating their positions. But, in the end, rational people abandon their positions and, instead, focus on their interests. I’ve written about the difference before. Crazy people sometimes sacrifice their interests for their positions, but that’s always a losing strategy. The cliché that describes choosing position over interest is cutting off one’s nose to spite one’s face. See #NeverTrump for more examples of people who abandon interests for positions.

Paul Ryan’s interest is remaining Speaker of the House. Ryan also wants to get some legislation passed in the Senate and signed by the President. His interests are better served with President Trump than with a Democrat in the White House. I realize Never Trumpers can’t get this through their heads, but a Trump victory in November increases the likelihood of the GOP keeping the House and keeping the Senate. Plus, while Trump’s policies are somewhat vague, Clinton’s are not. Clinton would veto every bill Republicans like. A Clinton administration would look a lot like Obama’s administration when it comes to legislation and compromise. So Ryan’s interest is to get Trump elected in November.

Remember that People Decide Emotionally and Defend with Reason

There is no such thing as a rational decision. Zero. All human decisions are emotional. The most important decision most people make is whom to marry. If you think that’s a purely rational decision, tell your wife. Then duck. If the most important decision in your life is an emotional decision, the less important decisions are even more emotional. It’s obvious.

Children with brain damage that prevents them from connecting to the emotional centers of the brain cannot choose between a black pen and a blue-black pen. There’s no rational reason to prefer one over the other, so the kids in the experiment had no information available about which pen to choose. So, even the choice of very dark blue ink or black ink is purely emotional. Understanding that we decide emotionally allowed me to see that Cruz had already decided to leave the race if he lost Indiana. It was that simple.

Reason and facts do matter but only after the decision. For people to remain committed to their decisions, they need rational evidence to defend their decision. It helps to provide facts before people make their decision because the easy available of these facts makes it easier for people to commit to their emotional decisions. Every salesperson knows this.

Be Bold and Announce What You See

The last step is important and it’s the most difficult. To get credit for predictions, you have to announce them. That means you have to be okay with being wrong. Some people would rather die than be wrong, so I don’t know what to tell you if you think people decide rationally. I don’t want you to die. For you, being wrong in public is very painful, so you probably need to keep your opinions to yourself. I am used to being wrong, so I find it easier to announce my predictions in public.

And that’s all there is to my effortless and easy formula for predicting that Cruz would quit the race and that Trump and Ryan would work together to defeat crooked Hillary Clinton and down-ballot Democrats this year. I looked at behavior of key players, determined their interests, and remembered that they decide emotionally and defend rationally. Then I wrote about it.

Expect Trump to Win in a Landslide

Now I’m pretty sure Trump will win in a landslide in November with about 400 electoral votes. Maybe more, but 400 seems about right. That means he’ll win about 40 states. I don’t know which 40, but that doesn’t matter. If Trump wins 40 states, he’ll win about 400 electoral votes. Everyone will call it Trump’s Landslide, and Ted Cruz and Paul Ryan will be very happy because President Trump will support and sign their favorite bills.

Most people expect Trump to beat crooked Hillary. I know pollsters aren’t releasing their expectation polls yet, because those polls would be a disaster for crooked Hillary. But people keep talking about “when Trump’s president” and “President Trump.” Even crooked Hillary released a “President Trump” video. These are psychological tells, just like Cruz’s “we ran.” Subconsciously, most people expect Trump to beat crooked Hillary Clinton (assuming she’s even allowed to run), and expectations trump preferences.

My only hesitation in making this prediction is that Never Trumper Glenn Beck also thinks Trump will in November. And Beck is usually wrong, but not always. So predicting the same thing Glenn Beck predicts scares me a little. Still, this time I’m going to agree with Glenn Beck and stick with what I see: a Trump landslide.

If you think “Never Trump,” you must also think “Never Cruz policies” and “Never Ryan policies.” That’s also called cutting off your nose to spite your face. And that’s crazy, folks. That’s crazy.


P.S. Your Comments: You’ll probably see a lot of people argue with me in the comments. They’ll ridicule me, then list a bunch of “facts” to prove I’m wrong about Trump winning in a landslide. Those commenters are actually proving my points. Everyone knows that facts don’t persuade, so why would people use facts to argue? Those commenters are not arguing with me; they’re arguing with their own minds. They’ve made an emotional decision, and they’re trying to defend that emotional decision with facts, exactly as I said. But the fact that they’re arguing on a public forum shows they’ve allowed some doubt to creep into their minds. Maybe some emotional trigger is urging them to believe Trump wins in a landslide. Vindicating.

  • Denise Smith

    Trump phenom has always been bigger than politics. “God draws with crooked lines…” At the beginning of this, I thought…Trump??? But curiosity drove my husband and I to actually watch his announcement speech last June. From that point forward….we knew it ‘had to be’. It has been nothing short of amazing to watch this unfold. NO ONE could take on the Clintons like DJT. Period. She would have chewed up and spit out the likes of ____________ (fill in the blank with your favorite candidate)…yes, even Mr. Cruz. Trump goes where angels fear to tread…. Therein lies his success.

  • Prof Della Scuola

    If you have read my comments on other threads, you will know that I am no Trump fan. I am hoping against hope that he won’t win. BUT… that being said, I am also a realist. So… as such, I have to look at all the possibilities and the ways that things are shaking out as this campaign season has played out. As much as I hate to admit it, I am ready to capitulate and openly say the following:

    NEXT YEAR AT THIS TIME, WE WILL BE SAYING “PRESIDENT TRUMP!”

    Not only will he be elected, TRUMP WILL WIN A MINIMUM OF 40 STATES! He will win in one of the biggest landslides in the nation’s history!

    I GUARANTEE IT! TAKE IT TO THE BANK: WE WILL DEFINITELY, POSITIVELY, UNDOUBTEDLY, SEE A HUGE TRUMP LANDSLIDE IN NOVEMBER!

    • Prof Della,

      Would you mind sharing why you think Trump will win about 40 states in November?

      I’m honored to have you comment on my blog. Thank you. I have read your comments on other threads, and I’m a little surprised by what you wrote here. While I’m very confident in my prediction, I’m sure I can learn something from you thinking.

      Thanks, again.

      • Prof Della Scuola

        Yeah, well, I was surprised and dismayed to write it myself!
        The change in my thinking is that I have seen in recent weeks the “Never Trump” movement come completely unglued and its former adherents now “adhering” to Trump. It seems that almost all of the members of the conservative base that he needs to win have fallen into line. Add to that the fact that it seems to me that the Democratic party has come unglued at the most inopportune moment. They can’t seem to pull the Hillary and Bernie factions together. Instead of shoring up their bases, they seem to be splintering. The trends I am seeing in poll after poll seem to be toward an inexhorable sea change in Trump’s favor. Witness pretty much every poll, even the traditionally democratically-leaning ones now showing Hillary leading by only between 2 and 5 percentage points. I don’t see that movement changing in the next 5 months, and I think it will continue to trend toward Trump. As you probably know, elections often ebb and flow on the backs of trends, and I just don’t see this one flowing back toward the democrats soon enough. Basically, I am saying that Trump hasn’t even peaked yet, whereas it seems to me that the democrats HAVE peaked and have now fractured and are flowing in the wrong direction. I also predict that the usual “convention bump” in the polls that both parties experience will be a significantly larger bump for the Republicans than for the Democrats this summer.
        I don’t claim to be an expert in polling. I am just an amateur who has been closely watching every election since I was a young kid during the 1968 election. I think trends and their ebbs and flows are the most significant factors in all elections. I just don’t see this trend going back to the democrats. But I do see it continuing to flow in the direction of Trump, added to what I see as a much more significant (and by then insurmountable)”convention bump” for Trump.

        I hope I am wrong, because I still hate Trump and all he stands for. But I am also a realist. My sense of how this election is trending tells me loudly and clearly “TRUMP LANDSLIDE!”
        I would sincerely appreciate an answer and analysis to what I have written here. Thank you for your attention!

  • Conservative Ken

    Why is Trump popular? Why have attacks against him fallen flat? You had the answer three years ago. You said “i think every candidate should admit their dirty laundry when they first enter an election”. Trump didn’t have to, his life is chronicled in every tabloid. His business succses and failures are public record. Point is, there is no secret bombshell scandal that will derail him.

    • whennessy

      Ken, you make a really good point. Back in November a blogger pointed out that Trump “owns the downside.” What that means is that, instead of running from the risk or potential downsides of his actions, statements, and policies, Trump embraces the downsides. It’s a great piece that makes even more sense now. https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2015/11/17/why-is-donald-trump-so-formidable-perhaps-because-he-owns-the-downside/

    • votemout2010

      Hennessy is a Trumpbot ie:LOST CAUSE! We need to stop clicking on his garbage site!

      • whennessy

        But you just can’t quit me, can you?

        Thanks for reading.

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