Come Down to Arkansas August 13

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It’s a great honor to be invited to speak at the Arkansas Tea Party Convention August 13 (details in a bit). It’s a bigger honor that they’ve invited me back for a second consecutive year. I’d love to see familiar Missouri faces in the crowd.

I’m going to talk about how we can be way more persuasive. Persuasion is what wins elections. Not facts. Persuasion. The more you know about persuasion, the more your side will win. It’s that simple. That’s why the left dominates the persuasion fields: advertising, movies, TV, journalism, education, psychology. Our side has pretty much abandoned those fields, haven’t we?

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Democrats Just Predicted Greitens Beats Koster

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Do you want to help Democrats win? You can, and the Democratic Governors Association just told you how.

If you’re a Republican and you follow the advice of the Democratic Governors Association, you won’t vote for Eric Greitens. The DGA wants Democrat Chris Koster to win, so Democrats are telling Missouri’s Republicans not to nominate Greitens. Democrats believe Greitens beats Koster in November.

Smart people know that you watch what people do, not what they say. In fact, everyone does this. Scientific research shows that about 70 percent of communication is nonverbal behavior. The Nonverbal Groupª puts it this way:

Dr. Albert Mehrabian, author of Silent Messages, conducted several studies on nonverbal communication. He found that 7% of any message is conveyed through words, 38% through certain vocal elements, and 55% through nonverbal elements (facial expressions, gestures, posture, etc). Subtracting the 7% for actual vocal content leaves one with the 93% statistic.

. . .

Based on my own research, I would state that the amount of communication that is nonverbal varies between 60 and 90% on a daily basis. This number depends on both the situation and the individual.

So smart people will ignore the content of the Democrat’s message and look at the behavior.

What did the Democrats do in attacking Greitens? They signaled that they don’t want Greitens to be the Republican nominee. The Democrats are telling Republican voters (like you) to vote for a candidate Democrat Koster can beat. And the Democrats believe Koster can beat any Republican . . . except Greitens. The DGA believe Greitens beats Koster.

If you normally vote for the Republican that Democrats tell you to vote for, you’ll vote for someone else. But if you make up your own mind, you’ll vote for Eric Greitens on Tuesday. If you like to do the opposite of what the Democrats say you should do, you’ll probably want to put a Greitens yard sign in your yard and vote for Greitens.

Or, you can be one of those mindless Republican robots who do whatever the Democrats tell you to do. Either way, if you vote for anyone except Eric Greitens, you’ll make the Democrats very, very happy.

ª The Nonverbal Group is a group of academics and professionals who are dedicated to conducting research on nonverbal communication.

Why Did Paul Holzer Expose John Brunner? Part III

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This is part III of a four-part series. Here’s part I and part II.

Why Now?

Why did Holzer choose last week to out himself? Why show himself now, putting his old boss, John Brunner, in such a bad light? And right before the August 2 primary?

Holzer has damaged Brunner’s reputation and credibility. And Brunner spent a ton of his own money in the process, including paying $100,000 to the guy who made the video, then squealed about it. It almost looks like Paul Holzer meant to take out Brunner, does it not?

Who Pushed Holzer to Show Himself?

You, like me, probably don’t believe Holzer did this on his own. Who told Holzer to show himself two weeks before the election?

Let’s look at all the major missteps in the Brunner campaign so far:

  • Brunner’s former campaign staffers, Eric McLean and Paul Holzer, set up a PAC that launched a fake website to smear Greitens, denying they received any compensation for the site.
  • Brunner consistently denied any connect to the fake smear site, even after the press reported the site’s links to the Brunner campaign.
  • Brunner secretly recorded a phone call with Eric Greitens, a dirty trick that Jane Duecker and Mark Reardon of KMOX both called “sleazy.”
  • Brunner then leaked that audio recording.  (You’ll want to read I Know It Was You, Fredo.) Even sleazier.
  • Brunner pushed an anti-Greitens video released anonymously, again claiming to have no idea who made the video. We now know that Paul Holzer, Brunner’s former chief of staff, made the video.
  • Now it looks like the Brunner camp took Paul Holzer on a media tour in Missouri, more or less admitting Brunner had been lying about connections to the video all along.

To the casual observer, it seems Holzer’s media tour was intended to take out Brunner, not Greitens.

So why?

Here’s my hypothesis.

Peter Kinder and Catherine Hanaway are both political insiders and known quantities. The Republican establishment in Missouri will always prefer the devil they know to the devil they don’t know.

It’s reasonable to assume that the establishment, in the form of Missouri’s political consultants, used Brunner’s money and campaign to hold Greitens down. They’ve done a good job getting a lot of conservatives freaked about Greitens’ conversion to conservatism. In fact, the many lies and innuendoes about Greitens have driven a lot of conservatives to flat-out hate the guy. I never thought I’d see my friends from the Tea Party mocking and denigrating someone’s military service, but that’s exactly the depth a lot of them have sunk to.

When you look the polls, you find that all four candidates hover around 20 to 25 percent with Greitens holding a slight lead. Because of the animosity, Brunner’s supporters feel toward Greitens, the party’s consultants assume that disaffected Brunner supporters will defect to Hanaway or Kinder, but not to Greitens.

In other words, I think the Missouri political class used Brunner as a stooge, and now they’re done with him. To ensure the GOP nominee is acceptable to the political class, they set Brunner up for a late fall. That political will probably work for Chris Koster in the general election just to keep their power. Koster’s an elitist, too.

All this could happen without Hanaway’s or Kinder’s knowledge. Certainly, the operatives had to keep Brunner in the dark. I bet John Brunner was as surprised as anyone when Paul Holzer showed up for a series of interviews two weeks ago. Brunner is smart enough to know that exposing Holzer this late would destroy Brunner’s credibility, not Greitens’s because Brunner denied any connection to the video for months.

Will Brunner Sing?

John Brunner was pretty bitter and angry after that 2012 defeat. He told friends he’d never again fund his own campaign, and he’d never again work with a consultant. Those were, of course, empty promises. But if Brunner felt used after 2012, how do you think he’ll feel this time? 

Will Brunner finally sing?

If I were a reporter, I’d stay very close to John Brunner on August 2.

For the record, I endorsed Eric Greitens because I believe breaking up the state’s political establishment is the most important thing for Missouri. I also think Greitens is the Republican candidate who can beat Chris Koster.