Obamacare Repeal Vote Results (Prediction)

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Today, President Trump changed the game. He changed the Prisoner’s Dilemma (coordination) into a game of Chicken (competition).

Lifer Republicans have no experience with games of chicken. They were raised on coordination games.

By changing the game to Chicken, Donald Trump greatly increased the chances that phony Paul Ryan’s healthcare will PASS.

Here’s why briefly.

Psychologically, people always think they have more time. Republicans, in particular, believe time is limitless. Lifelong Republicans think they can delay any decision until the decision they want is a given.

But Trump said in effect, “vote tomorrow. I’m moving on.”

That’s a very strong move. And it scared the shit out of Republicans. Even Freedom Caucus snowflakes who accused the President of ignoring them. (Not all Freedom Caucusers¬†are snowflakes. But the pansies who complained about their lack of access to the President should be driven out of the caucus and out of the Congress. They’re weak.) Enough Republicans believe that it’s this or nothing. It’s this or Obamacare forever. It’s this or total failure of the last 8 years of Republican politics.

So my prediction is that this pathetic bill will pass.

I hope, but don’t predict, that House Republicans will remove Paul Ryan from the Speakership. Paul Ryan is a weak and failed Speaker. This bill should have been ready on January 20. Ryan’s selfishness caused this crisis.¬†

For the record, I also hope the bill passes. Not that I like the bill. But I think it can be improved with future legislation. If it fails, we will live with Obamacare for the next 100 years. Too many people worked too hard for too many years to let that happen.

Strategy, not hyperventilation.

P.S. Nothing in this post should be construed as an endorsement of Paul Ryan. I think Paul Ryan is a disgusting, weak person. But I believe Trump. He walks away from negotiations that are going nowhere. When he says “take it or leave it,” he means. He has a history.