The biggest shock in Iowa
February 2, 2016
The polls were wrong. But that wasn’t the biggest shock. The big shock was . . . who was that guy pretending to be Donald Trump? Millions and millions of people waited to watch The Donald melt down after finishing second behind Ted Cruz. But it didn’t happen. Instead, Trump managed to show humility and graciousness without giving up his signature bravado. Pretty brilliant. As Romney and Rove learned in 2012, though, air power will not win many races.
What if high turnout in Iowa means something else
February 2, 2016
Reports on Twitter say turnout in Iowa very high. Some caucuses are reportedly running out of ballots. Huge turnout! #IowaCaucus — Jake Putala (@JakePutala) February 2, 2016 The view at Dubuque’s 19th precinct. We had to move to an auditorium to accommodate the large turnout. #IowaCaucus pic.twitter.com/QcWKY1ivAg — Chris Lammer-Heindel (@lammerheindel) February 2, 2016 HUGE turnout in both Democratic and Republican caucuses tonight.
The Cruz campaign's epic #facepalm
February 1, 2016
This “VOTING VIOLATION” controversy says bad things about the Cruz campaign. (BTW, Rubio’s campaign sent a similar, but less creepy, mailer, too. So far, I have not seen a large number of complaints about the Rubio mailer.) And I’m not talking about the ethics of publicly shaming people who vote sporadically. I’m talking two gross electioneering violations from a campaign that markets itself as the most scientifically advanced in history. With the mailer Team Cruz showed a lack of strategic understanding of the science and compounded their ignorance by apparently making up numbers.
Do Republican elites know something they're not telling?
January 26, 2016
Reading two excellent articles by Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight (here and here), I remembered a thought that passed through my mind last Friday. After reading some of National Review’s “Against Trump” issue,I wrote blog post. To me the NR issue showed the magazine is out of touch with voters. I’m not talking about traditional, reliable, motivated, and informed primary voters.** I’m talking about the broader pool of voters who vote in general elections every four, eight, or twelve years** and occasionally in local elections.
BREAKING: Santorum Pulls Away with 13-Vote Lead
January 4, 2012
That’s with 88 percent of the counting complete. The bigger story: Romney’s underperforming his 2008 results in key counties. Santorum outperforming Huckabee in 2008. What does it all mean? Conservatives and libertarians dominate the caucuses. Romney is the choice of the Republican establishment. The cronies poured millions into his campaign even before he declared himself a conservative. He’s won endorsements from just about every big name general election loser include Bob Dole and George H.