No One Tells You About Polls that Project a Big Win for Trump
October 24, 2020
Most election polls include a question that pollsters rarely talk about: whom do you expect to win. Yet, the answer to this question is more accurate than any other election forecasting tool. By a lot. Finding the answers to this question is tricky. You have to get hold of the raw datasets and do the math yourself. Pollsters do not publish expectation data. The most recent analysis of expectation data comes from early October, around the first debate.
Trump's Landslide Tipping Point Is Breathing Down Your Neck
September 19, 2016
We’re getting close, folks. So close you can feel it. Close your eyes and feel the soft, warm breath on the back of your neck. (Now open your eyes and continue reading. You’re such a good reader.) As you watch the polls shift rapidly toward Trump, you might wonder what’s happening. What’s happening is completely natural, but it’s not normal. Elections don’t usually go this way. And two psychological phenomena are working to deliver the Trump landslide I predicted long ago.
Trump Surging Up, Up, and Away
September 5, 2016
Politico announced Tuesday: Clinton’s Advisors Tell Her to Prep for a Landslide Inquisitor said the same day: Hillary Clinton Campaign Preparing for a Landslide The stories beneath those headlines spoke of the intense hubris inside the Democratic Party and the Clinton campaign. Their “experts” declared the race over on Tuesday. Assured of a landslide, Clinton stopped campaigning and turned to what the Clinton’s do best: extorting money from the ultra-rich.
2016 looks like a repeat of 1980
August 22, 2016
You probably remember that in September 1980 voters couldn’t wait to cast a vote for Reagan. If you remember it like that, you remember wrong. At least a little wrong. TIME magazine examined voter sentiment in its September 15, 1980, issue. Voters that year sounded a lot like voters this year. Here’s how TIME’s Ed Magnuson summarized the voters of 1980: Disenchanted, but not apathetic. Caring about issues, although much more concerned about character.
The Psychology of The Inevitable
May 1, 2016
I have no idea who will win the Indiana primary 72 hours from the time I write. But the people inside Ted Cruz’s campaign seem to have an idea. And it’s not good for them. Cruz’s top team expects their candidate to lose. And Senator Cruz seems to have accepted that outcome. Expectations Matter More Than Preferences Regular readers know that polls that ask “who do you think will win” trump polls that ask “who do you intend to vote for” or even “who did you vote for?
Here’s How Nate Silver Determines Obama’s Chances of Winning
October 29, 2012
Nate Silver publishes a daily number that represents Barack Obama’s chances of being re-elected. As I write this on October 27, Silver’s magic number is 74%. [youtube=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sKTUiwhac8Q&w=351&h=216&hd=1] Nate Silver explains his scientific approach to picking winners in elections.
What The Pollsters Aren’t Telling You
October 22, 2012
Polls do influence elections. That’s why people like Nate Silver and some of the writers at Business Insider are doing somersaults over Gallup’s Daily Presidential Tracking numbers. For over a week, Gallup has shown a tidal wave for support for Mitt Romney. Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight tried to discredit Gallup by blogging about outlier results it’s shown in past years. Here’s the conclusion Business Insider reached: Bottom line: Gallup swings wildly and it frequently has results not in line with other pollsters.
Obama’s Surging in the Polls; Here’s Everything You Need to Know
February 20, 2012
Don’t bother blaming it on poll questions designed to lead respondents. Never mind that it’s a long way until the election. And stop whining about the White House fudging the numbers on unemployment. The fact is that Obama’s surging at just the right time. His re-election chances are now above 50 percent. His intrade.com chances of winning are near 60 percent. And he’s raising more money than al of the Republican candidates combined.
80 Percent of Americans Read This Blog Every Day
July 16, 2011
I’ll be honest with you: I’ve lied. Usually out of desperation. I’ve lied to those closest to me—those most willing to forgive the thing I lied about. I’ve also told the truth to my own detriment. In the long run, the latter works best. In fact, telling the truth works best in the short run, too. So maybe Obama’s desperate. Maybe he knows that the debt ceiling debate is the beginning of the unraveling of Americum Sovieticum, his life-long dream.
Tea Party Message Sinking In
March 28, 2009
Rasmussen’s weekly report shows the Tea Party message of limited government and lower taxes is hitting home with voters. Tax Cuts: More voters than ever now say tax cuts help the economy. Over 60 percent now agree with JFK, Reagan, Bush, and the undeniable facts of economic history: cutting taxes increases GDP and personal wealth. A separate survey released earlier today found that 66% of voters think the president is likely to raise taxes on those who make less than $250,000 per year.
American Support For War Grows
July 23, 2007
The New York Times, believe it or not, has this story in its campaign blog: Poll: American Support for War Inches Up The story cites an NYT/CBS Poll that showed America support for war in Iraq rose to 41% in July from 35% in May. You will not see this story on the CBS Evening News or on the front page of America’s most un-American paper, though. The results do not fit either organization’s political agenda.